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At the beginning of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the change in payroll employment for the previous month. When the estimate is revised in subsequent months, however, data users sometimes perceive a very different picture of the job market than what was initially reported. Why is the initial estimate revised? The revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the initial release, making the revised estimate more accurate.
Differences between the initial and revised estimates generally indicate that the employment change that occurred at the businesses that had not initially reported was different than the change that occurred at the businesses that had initially reported. For example, if less employment growth occurred among those who had not reported at the time of the first estimate, the initial estimate would be revised down. If more growth occurred among the late responders, the initial estimate would be revised up.
Over-the-month change in employment by closing date of the first, second, and third releases of BLS data, seasonally adjusted, January—December 2012
Month
Seasonally adjusted
Over-the-month change
Revision in over-the-month change
1st release
2nd release
3rd release
2nd - 1st release
3rd - 2nd release
3rd - 1st release
January 2012
243,000
284,000
275,000
41,000
-9,000
32,000
February 2012
227,000
240,000
259,000
13,000
19,000
32,000
March 2012
120,000
154,000
143,000
34,000
-11,000
23,000
April 2012
115,000
77,000
68,000
-38,000
-9,000
-47,000
May 2012
69,000
77,000
87,000
8,000
10,000
18,000
June 2012
80,000
64,000
45,000
-16,000
-19,000
-35,000
July 2012
163,000
141,000
181,000
-22,000
40,000
18,000
August 2012
96,000
142,000
192,000
46,000
50,000
96,000
September 2012
114,000
148,000
132,000
34,000
-16,000
18,000
October 2012
171,000
138,000
137,000
-33,000
-1,000
-34,000
November 2012
146,000
161,000
247,000
15,000
86,000
101,000
December 2012
155,000
196,000
219,000
41,000
23,000
64,000
So why doesn’t BLS wait until it has all the reports to make the estimate and avoid revisions? Users of the data are intensely interested in the earliest possible read on labor market developments, and experience suggests that the initial estimate is generally very good. For example, in 2012, the average monthly employment change using the first estimate would have been +142,000, compared with a monthly average change of +165,000 using the third estimate. Nevertheless, it is true that in some months, revisions are large enough that they change the users’ perspectives on the current state of the economy. In November 2012, for example, the initial estimate of over-the-month change was +146,000, while the third estimate was +247,000.
These data are from the Current Employment Statistics Survey. To learn more, see “Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers?” (HTML) (PDF), by Thomas Nardone, Kenneth Robertson, and Julie Hatch Maxfield, Beyond the Numbers, July 2013.
United States Department of Labor
