
An official website of the United States government
This paper explores the short-term local labor market impact of the spread of COVID-19 in the
United States, using the Current Employment Statistics survey and the Current Population Survey
microdata. It uses the longitudinal aspect of both these surveys to measure changes in employment
for business establishments and household members. I match the survey respondent to the measured
local incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases, using confidential information on county of location,
to estimate the impact of the local incidence of the virus, after controlling for multiple measures of
government intervention. I find the greatest declines in employment in counties with higher incidence
of COVID-19. These effects vary by industry: leisure / hospitality and other services have large
declines in employment relative to the effect of the incidence of the virus, while the employment
decline in construction and transportation and warehousing depends more on the local incidence of
the virus. Finance / insurance, a very telework-friendly industry, is unaffected by the incidence of
the virus. These short-term employment effects have implications for future employment patterns
as government restrictions are relaxed and business owners begin to decide whether to open their
businesses while the virus is still active in the United States.