Total nonfarm employment for the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area decreased by 341,000 over the year in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See chart 1 and table 1.) Regional Commissioner Jason Palmer noted that the local rate of job loss, 7.1 percent, compared to the 6.0-percent national decline. This was the ninth consecutive month of over-the-year employment declines in the Chicago area. (The Technical Note at the end of this release contains metropolitan area definitions. All data in this release are not seasonally adjusted; accordingly, over-the-year analysis is used throughout.)

The Chicago metropolitan area is made up of four metropolitan divisions—separately identifiable employment centers within the larger metropolitan area. Employment declined in all four divisions. The Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights Metropolitan Division, with 80 percent of the area’s total nonfarm payroll, lost 274,100 jobs over the year. The Lake County-Kenosha County Metropolitan Division, which accounted for nine percent of the area’s employment, lost 28,000 jobs since November 2019. The Elgin Metropolitan Division, with five percent of local employment, lost 24,500 jobs, and the Gary Metropolitan Division, with six percent of the area’s employment, lost 14,400 jobs.

Industry employment

In the greater Chicago metropolitan area, employment declined in nine supersectors. Leisure and hospitality had the largest loss (-130,400), with three of the four metropolitan area divisions recording significant declines. The 27.1-percent rate of decline in the metropolitan area’s leisure and hospitality supersector compared to the 19.8-percent loss on a national level. (See chart 2.)

The government supersector in the Chicago area lost 44,600 jobs, an 8.0-percent decrease. Nationally, employment in government was down 5.3 percent from November 2019 to November 2020.

Professional and business services lost 40,600 jobs over the year in the local area. The Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights division lost 35,100 jobs, accounting for 86 percent of the local area’s employment loss in this industry. The local area’s 4.8-percent employment decline in professional and business services compared to the 4.7-percent decrease for the nation.

Education and health services lost 38,000 jobs locally, down 5.1 percent. All four of Chicago’s metropolitan area divisions reported significant employment decreases from November 2019 to November 2020. Nationwide, employment in the industry was down 4.4 percent.

Trade, transportation, and utilities employment was down 31,100 over the year. The Chicago and Elgin divisions recorded significant declines. The local area had a 3.2-percent loss compared to the 3.3-percent decline for the nation.

Significant job losses were also recorded in financial activities, manufacturing, mining and logging, and other services.

Employment in the 12 largest metropolitan areas

Chicago was 1 of the nation’s 12 largest metropolitan statistical areas in November 2020. All 12 areas lost jobs over the year. New York-Newark-Jersey City had the largest decline (-999,600). Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale had the smallest loss (-57,300) among the largest areas. (See chart 3 and table 2.)

New York had a 9.9-percent rate of job loss, followed by San Francisco-Hayward-Oakland (-9.3 percent). Boston-Cambridge-Nashua had a job loss rate of 9.1 percent. The rates of job losses in the remaining nine areas ranged from 8.1 percent in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim to 2.5 percent in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington.

The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release for December 2020 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, February 3, 2021, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

Technical Note

This release presents nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The CES survey is a Federal-State cooperative endeavor between State employment security agencies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods at www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/ces-20110307.pdf.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Reliability of the estimates. The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability–that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/bmrk_article.htm.

Area definitions. The substate area data published in this news release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2018

The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area includes Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will Counties in Illinois; Jasper, Lake, Newton, and Porter Counties in Indiana; and Kenosha County in Wisconsin.

• The Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division includes Cook, DuPage, Grundy, Kendall, McHenry, and Will Counties in Illinois.
• The Elgin, IL Metropolitan Division includes DeKalb and Kane Counties.
• The Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI Metropolitan Division includes Lake County in Illinois and Kenosha County in Wisconsin.
• The Gary, IN Metropolitan Division includes Jasper, Lake, Newton, and Porter Counties in Indiana.

Additional information

Employment data from the CES program are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/sae/. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Service: (800) 877-8339.