Occupational projections overview, 2021–31

This article is organized by 24 occupational groups,³ which highlight several of the detailed occupations that are projected to grow the fastest or projected to decline the fastest. Additional information for these occupations may be found within the OOH. This article also illustrates common trends and factors within occupational groups and across groups.

Table 1 displays the projected employment change from 2021 to 2031, sorted by percentage of total new jobs added. This table and all subsequent tables provide information about employment change in two ways: numeric change and percent change. This is important to note because a fast rate of employment growth does not always translate into many new jobs. For example, the math occupational group is projected to grow 28.7 percent from 2021 to 2031, the fastest of any occupational group. However, because of this occupational group’s relatively small size, this percent growth accounts for only about 82,000 new jobs over the projections decade. In contrast, the healthcare occupational group is projected to contribute the most new jobs of any group and projected to grow 12.6 percent. Because of its large size, the healthcare occupational group is projected to add over 2 million new jobs over the decade. That is, the healthcare occupational group is projected to add more new jobs even though its growth rate is lower than that of the math occupational group.

Overview

Of the 8.3 million new jobs projected to be added by 2031, almost one-quarter will be within the healthcare occupational group. The five occupational groups projected to add the most new jobs from 2021–31 contribute about 70 percent of the 8.3 million new jobs. These five occupational groups include the following: healthcare occupations, food preparation and serving occupations, management occupations, transportation and material moving occupations, and business and financial occupations. (See chart 1.)

The concentrated nature of the employment growth lends itself to some key takeaways. Healthcare occupations are projected to add the most new jobs of any of the occupational groups, contributing over 2.0 million new jobs to the total 8.3 million jobs during the projections period. This projected growth is mainly due to a growing population, whose rising share of older people with chronic conditions is expected to lead to greater demand for healthcare services.

The growth in some industries synergizes with growth in other industries. Business growth and expansion (especially in healthcare, information technology (IT), and e-commerce) will drive demand for services provided by management occupations, transportation and material moving occupations, and business and financial service occupations. These three occupational groups, combined, account for almost 30 percent of all new jobs expected to be added to 2031. The sectors that are projected to grow faster than average, such as healthcare and IT, will consequently result in demand for managers in those areas. Continued growth of e-commerce should increase demand for transportation and warehousing, supporting demand for package delivery services and material movers. The growth in digital marketing and e-commerce will support demand for business and finance occupations that manage activities such as logistics, marketing research, and accounting.

Likewise, demand for the services provided by computer and information technology occupations and math occupations will stem from greater emphasis on collecting and analyzing data, continuing growth in the digital economy, and an increasing need for information security. These two occupational groups, combined, account for a little over 9 percent of all new jobs to be added to 2031, and they are projected to be the two fastest growing groups. Overall, employment in math occupations is projected to grow 28.7 percent, the fastest of any group. Also, employment in computer and information technology occupations is projected to grow 14.6 percent from 2021 to 2031.

In contrast, significant employment gains for some occupational groups are primarily rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic.⁴ Food preparation and serving occupations and personal care and service occupations, combined, are projected to add almost 1.9 million new jobs, contributing about 22 percent of the total 8.3 million jobs projected over the 2021–31 projections cycle. However, a large part of the projected growth for these two groups represents a recovery from the low employment level in 2021 because of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Not all occupational groups are expected to grow. Production occupations, sales occupations, and office and administrative support occupations are three occupational groups expected to experience a decline in employment over the projections decade. Changes in technology, such as machines or software use that increases productivity or replaces workers altogether, are expected to contribute to a decline in employment and suppress job openings.⁵ Nevertheless, the need to replace workers who change occupations or leave the labor force is expected to create some job openings, even in occupations with projected employment declines.

Occupational groups analysis

The occupational groups in this article encompass every civilian job in the United States and can be broken down into individual occupations. Of these, more than 500 detailed occupations in over 300 occupational profiles are covered in the OOH, accounting for about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. The OOH includes information on job outlook, job descriptions, entry-level education, training information, and wage data.⁶

Occupations can be grouped by similar duties or purposes; for example, protective service occupations include police and sheriff’s patrol officers, security guards, and correctional officers and jailers. Examining the growth of occupational groups reveals the key factors affecting employment over the projections period.

Projected employment information for each of the OOH occupational groups is outlined below, including information about factors that may be contributing to the projected employment change at the group level. In this article, occupational groups are presented in order of the percentage of total new jobs projected to be added over the projections period from the occupational groups projected to add the most new jobs to the occupational groups projected to lose jobs over the projections decade. Detailed occupations are highlighted in each group section with the fastest growing occupations or the fastest declining occupations. The median annual wage and typical education needed for entry into these detailed occupations are provided. Links to the OOH pages are provided for additional information on what they do, work environment, and a list of similar occupations, among other information.

Healthcare occupational group

Overall employment in healthcare occupations is projected to grow 12.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 2.0 million new jobs over the decade, the most of any group.⁷ Healthcare workers will be needed to assist a growing number of older Americans stay healthy and active and to provide services to those with chronic conditions, such as diabetes. Five of the top 30 fastest growing occupations are detailed occupations within the healthcare occupational group: nurse practitioners, physician assistants, physical therapist assistants, home health and personal care aides, and occupational therapy assistants. (See appendix A-1.)

Nurse practitioners are projected to experience the fastest employment growth of all occupations, with projected growth of 45.7 percent. Healthcare facilities are increasingly using team-based healthcare models, which employ nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other healthcare practitioners to provide patient care that would otherwise be provided by a doctor. Many of the fastest growing occupations in healthcare work closely with patients to help them maintain or improve their quality of life. Physical therapist assistants assist physical therapists, particularly in long-term care environments; physical therapist assistants have a projected employment growth of 26.5 percent (much faster than the average for all occupations and the fastest growing occupation within the healthcare support occupational group). Occupational therapy assistants will be needed to help occupational therapists in caring for patients with conditions and ailments, such as arthritis and strokes, that may affect their ability to do everyday activities.

Employment of home health and personal care aides is projected to grow by 25.4 percent and add about 924,000 jobs. Both the fast growth of the elderly population and their desire to live in their own homes are expected to underpin demand for more in-home assistance. Demand for assistance and care for individuals in retirement communities, assisted-living facilities, nursing homes, and other facilities is expected to contribute to the overall growth of this occupation.

Healthcare occupations had a median annual wage of $47,070 in May 2021, but wages vary widely; some healthcare occupations are among the highest paying, while others have wages below the median annual wage. Wages are generally correlated with education as occupations with higher levels of typical entry-level education usually pay more. Many of the occupations within this group require on-the-job training, internship, or residency experience.

Food preparation and serving occupational group

Overall employment in food preparation and serving occupations is projected to grow 11.2 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 1.3 million new jobs over the decade.⁸ Food preparation and serving occupations are projected to contribute 15.9 percent of the new jobs added over the 2021–31 period. This mostly reflects job recovery from the COVID-19 recession of 2020 because pandemic restrictions had significant effects on employment levels in restaurants. Only one of the top 30 fastest growing occupations projected from 2021 to 2031 is a detailed occupation within the food preparation and serving occupational group, namely, cooks, restaurants. (See appendix A-1.)

Some employment lost in the food preparation and serving occupations during the pandemic and projected to be recovered over the projections decade has already been recuperated as employment grew rapidly throughout the first half of 2022.⁹ Many food service establishments, restaurants, school cafeterias, and food contractors for businesses have already reopened and reemployed workers as consumer food spending patterns returned to their prepandemic trends.

In addition to the immediate recovery discussed above, new restaurant openings and expanded food deliveries will contribute to increases in demand for restaurant food, supporting demand for the services provided by the food preparation and serving occupations. Cooks at restaurants are expected to add the most new jobs within this group as consumers demand more high-quality food from restaurants, contributing about 459,900 new jobs over the projections decade.

The food preparation and serving occupations group is the lowest paid major group, with a median annual wage of $28,400 in May 2021. Most food preparation and serving occupations require on-the-job training, typically lasting up to 30 days; however, typically no education credentials are needed for entry.

Management occupational group

Overall employment in management occupations is projected to grow 7.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 883,900 new jobs over the decade.¹⁰ Only one of the top 30 fastest growing occupations projected from 2021 to 2031 is a detailed occupation within the management occupational group, namely, medical and health services managers. (See appendix A-1.)

The projected employment change for management occupations varies depending on the demand for the services they provide and the need for the supervision of workers. For example, as the demand for healthcare services increases, medical and health services managers will be needed to support this demand, driving employment growth of 28.3 percent from 2021 to 2031. Similarly, the employment of computer and information systems managers is projected to grow 16.2 percent over the projections period as the need for IT services and enhanced security requirements continue to grow.

Both lodging managers and entertainment and recreation managers, except gambling, will also see fast employment growth. However, much of this projected growth will be due to recovery from the COVID-19 recession. The return to prepandemic travel patterns will result in strong demand for lodging managers in hotels and other lodging establishments at the beginning of the projections decade.

The median annual wage for this group was $102,450 in May 2021, which was the highest among the major occupational groups. A bachelor’s degree is the required level of education for most jobs within this group. However, requirements vary from a high school diploma to a master’s degree across the management occupations. In addition to postsecondary education, most occupations in this group require work experience in a related occupation. For example, financial managers require years of work experience in a related occupation for entry.

Transportation and material moving occupational group

Overall employment in transportation and material moving occupations is projected to grow 6.5 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 861,800 new jobs over the decade.¹¹ The economy depends on transportation and material moving workers to transport freight and passengers and keep supply chains moving. Expected growth in e-commerce will drive demand for transportation and deliveries. Taxi drivers is the only detailed occupation from the transportation and material moving group among the top 30 fastest growing occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031. (See appendix A-1.)

Some of the occupations within this group, such as taxi drivers, flight attendants, and shuttle drivers and chauffeurs, were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic; these occupations are expected to experience much faster than average growth over the projections decade. They are expected to recover lost employment from the recession of 2020 as the general population returns to prepandemic travel patterns.

The general demand for delivery options is expected to increase, and the services provided by driver/sales workers are projected to grow as these workers may be needed to deliver items such as food and medical supplies.

The median annual wage for this group was $36,860 in May 2021, which was lower than the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760. Education requirements for this group range from no education credential to a postsecondary nondegree award, but a high school diploma is generally the level of education needed for entry. Some form of on-the-job training is needed to attain competency in most of the occupations within the transportation and material moving group.

Business and financial occupational group

Overall employment in business and financial occupations is projected to grow 7.2 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 715,100 new jobs over the decade.¹² Continued domestic and international business operations, along with a complex tax and regulatory environment, are expected to create demand for a variety of business and financial services, including accounting, consulting, and investment advisory services. In addition, increasing efforts to understand customers behavior and product demand and to evaluate marketing strategies will lead to growing demand for market research. Only one of the top 30 fastest growing occupations projected from 2021 to 2031 is a detailed occupation within the business and financial occupational group, namely, logisticians. (See appendix A-1.)

Logisticians are expected to be in high demand; their employment is projected to grow 27.7 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations. As the growth of e-commerce makes logistics more dynamic and complex, logisticians will be needed to manage multiple supply chains and oversee purchasing, transportation, inventory, and warehousing activities. The increasing use of data and market research across many industries will support the demand for market research analysts and marketing specialists; employment in these occupations is projected to grow 19.0 percent over the projections decade.

Employment of farm labor contractors is projected to grow 22.3 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations, as farms seek the assistance of contractors in recruiting and hiring seasonal and temporary farmworkers. Employment of financial examiners is projected to grow 21.0 percent from 2021 to 2031 as the services they provide are needed to help navigate the regulatory environment and reduce the cost of compliance. 

The median annual wage for this group was $76,570 in May 2021, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760. Most occupations in this group require a bachelor’s degree and many require some form of on-the-job training. Farm labor contractors represent the only occupation in this group requiring no education credentials for entry; however, farm labor contractors do require short-term on-the-job training.

Computer and information technology occupational group

Overall employment in computer and information technology occupations is projected to grow 14.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 682,800 new jobs over the decade.¹³ Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many computer and IT jobs were already projected to be in high demand over the next decade, growing much faster than average. The pandemic only served to make IT workers even more important to the future economy.¹⁴ Strong demand for IT security, software development, and new products and services associated with the Internet of Things (IoT) continue to drive demand for the services provided by these computer and IT occupations. Three of the top 30 fastest growing occupations projected from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the computer and information technology occupational group: information security analysts, web developers, and software developers. (See appendix A-1.)

Employment of information security analysts is projected to grow the fastest among the computer occupations, at 34.7 percent from 2021 to 2031, more than six times the rate of growth that is projected for the total economy. As businesses continue to focus on enhancing cybersecurity, they will need information security analysts to secure new technologies from outside threats or hacks, including IoT-connected devices. As e-commerce continues to expand, organizations will look to utilize the services provided by web developers to create and maintain websites, which will result in projected growth of 30.3 percent from 2021 to 2031.

Software developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers are projected to be among the fastest growing computer occupations (26.0 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively) as the services they provide will be needed to support the increasing number of products that use software. Employment of computer and information research scientists is projected to grow 21.3 percent from 2021 to 2031 as the demand for new and better technology continues to grow.

The median annual wage for computer occupations was $97,430 in May 2021, higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. A bachelor’s degree or higher is needed for entry-level positions in most occupations in this group, and some on-the-job training may be needed to attain competency in a few of the occupations.

Education, training, and library occupational group

Overall employment in education, training, and library occupations is projected to grow 7.2 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 658,200 new jobs over the decade.¹⁵ Growth in education, training, and library occupations is influenced by school enrollments and budgets. The number of people attending postsecondary institutions is expected to grow over the projections decade as students continue to seek higher education to gain the knowledge and skills necessary to meet their career goals. Only one of the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031 is a detailed occupation within the education, training, and library occupational group: health specialties teachers, postsecondary. (See appendix A-1.)

Health specialties teachers and nursing instructors and teachers are projected to be the two fastest growing occupations within this group; they are projected to grow 24.1 and 21.5 percent, respectively, over the projections decade as the increased demand for medical care will support demand for postsecondary teachers to educate workers.

Demand for preschool and child daycare services is expected to be robust as early childhood education is emphasized. As a result, employment of preschool teachers is projected to grow 15.1 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations.

The median annual wage for education, training, and library occupations was $57,220 in May 2021, more than the median for all occupations in the economy. College coursework is required for most jobs within the field, although this varies with the level of instruction. There is no typical on-the-job training needed for the education, training, and library occupations.

Personal care and service occupational group

Overall employment in personal care and service occupations is projected to grow 14.1 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 544,800 new jobs over the decade.¹⁶ Government-imposed closures for entertainment events in some parts of the country and some consumer preferences to avoid these types of events resulted in reduced attendance levels or canceled events throughout 2021. Within the personal care and service occupational group, six of the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations. This includes the 5 occupations in table 9 and entertainment attendants and related workers, all other. (See appendix A-1.)

The much-faster-than-average growth for ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers and motion picture projectionists primarily represents the recovery of jobs from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These occupations are expected to recover early in the projections period as social gatherings and other activities resume.

Increasing pet ownership and spending on pets will continue to contribute to employment growth of animal caretakers and animal trainers.

The median annual wage for personal care and service occupations was $29,450 in May 2021, lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. Most occupations in this group require a high school diploma or equivalent; however, on-the-job training is needed for many of the personal care and service occupations.

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupational group

Overall employment in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations is projected to grow 5.0 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 304,000 new jobs over the decade.¹⁷ Demand for workers in these occupations will stem from the need to install, maintain, and repair a wide variety of equipment, including cars, factory machinery, and equipment used in homes and hospitals. In addition, many buildings will need upkeep and renewal as older homes and buildings typically require more maintenance or repair, especially for pipes, insulation, electrical systems, and air-conditioning and heating systems. Specialized maintenance and repair of these aging systems alongside installation of new systems will support growth for many jobs in this group. One of the detailed occupations within this occupational group, wind turbine service technicians, is among the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031. (See appendix A-1.)

Wind turbine service technicians are projected to have the second-fastest employment growth of all occupations. However, there will be relatively few jobs added (about 4,900 over 2021–31) because of the small employment numbers of wind turbine service technicians in 2021. Wind power generation has grown over the past 10 years, and it will require technicians to install, maintain, and repair wind turbines as this generating capacity ages.

The use of medical equipment for diagnosis and treatment will expand as the number of older adults and people with chronic diseases increase. Medical equipment repairers will be needed to maintain and repair medical equipment. Expansion of automation in production activities will support demand for the services provided by industrial machinery mechanics as they are needed to help keep machines in good working order.

The median annual wage for installation, maintenance, and repair occupations was $47,940 in May 2021, which was higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Most of the occupations within this group require a high school diploma or equivalent and on-the-job training.

Community and social service occupational group

Overall employment in community and social service occupations is projected to grow 10.4 percent from 2021 to 2031, faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 294,600 new jobs over the decade.¹⁸ As demand remains strong for mental health, addiction, and school and career-counseling services, employment of community and social service occupations is projected to experience fast growth over the projections period.

Much-faster-than-average employment growth is expected for substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors as people continue to seek addiction and mental health counseling services. An emphasis on promoting healthy behaviors, particularly those based on experiences from the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to increase demand for the services provided by community health workers over the projections decade.

Much-faster-than-average employment growth is expected for marriage and family therapists. Growth is expected because of the increasing use of integrated care, which is the treatment of multiple problems at the same time by a group of specialists. In providing integrated care, marriage and family therapists are working with counselors, such as substance abuse, behavioral disorder, or mental health counselors, to address patients' issues as a team.

The median annual wage for community and social service occupations was $48,410 in May 2021, which was higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Education requirements vary from high school diploma to a master’s degree, tending to be higher for more complex social needs. Several occupations within this group also require on-the-job training, internship, or residency experience.

Building and grounds cleaning occupational group

Overall employment in building and grounds cleaning occupations is projected to grow 5.4 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 290,800 new jobs over the decade.¹⁹ None of the detailed occupations within this occupational group are projected to be among the top 30 fastest growing occupations from 2021 to 2031. Building and grounds cleaning workers will be needed to keep up with continued demand for lawn care, landscaping, and cleaning services from both commercial and residential spaces.

Maids and housekeeping cleaners are expected to see strong employment growth mostly because of recovery from the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The return to prepandemic travel patterns will translate to strong demand for maids and housekeeping cleaners in hotels and other traveler accommodations at the start of the projections decade. The job recovery also is expected in other establishments that were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, including private households, hospitals, and nursing care centers.

Landscaping and groundskeeping workers will see employment growth associated with increasing demand for lawn care and landscaping services from homeowners and from large institutions, such as universities and corporate campuses.

The median annual wage for building and grounds cleaning was $30,240 in May 2021, which was lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. Many of the occupations within this group do not require an education credential, but a high school diploma or equivalent is needed for entry into higher paying building and grounds cleaning occupations. On-the-job training is needed for most of the building and grounds cleaning occupations.

Construction and extraction occupational group

Overall employment in construction and extraction occupations is projected to grow 3.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 252,900 new jobs over the decade.²⁰ Overall growth in the economy will increase demand for new buildings, roads, and other structures, which will create jobs in construction and extraction occupations. Alternative-energy-related activities will contribute to the growth of construction occupations, including the installation of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, photovoltaic (PV) panels, and wind turbines.²¹ Two of the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the construction and extraction occupational group: solar photovoltaic installers and roustabouts, oil and gas. (See appendix A-1.)

With the continued expansion and adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, the employment of solar PV installers is projected to grow 27.2 percent from 2021 to 2031. This is much faster than the average for all occupations.

The exploration and extraction of oil and gas will support demand for the services provided by roustabouts, rotary drill operators, service unit operators, and derrick operators.

The median annual wage for this group was $48,210 in May 2021, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations. Many of these occupations typically do not require education for entry, however most construction trades occupations do require a high school diploma or equivalent. Nearly all construction and extraction occupations require on-the-job training, and many construction trades occupations require an apprenticeship.

Legal occupational group

Overall employment in legal occupations is projected to grow 9.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 131,000 new jobs over the decade.²² Legal services are expected to be in demand and contribute to employment growth in this occupational group.

Demand for specialized and expert legal services will contribute to the overall employment growth of lawyers and legal-related occupations.

Despite this need for legal services, continuing price competition over the projections decade may lead law firms to rethink project staffing to reduce costs to clients. For example, paralegals and legal assistants are less costly than lawyers in performing a variety of tasks previously assigned to entry-level lawyers.

The median annual wage for this group was $82,430 in May 2021, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760. Most occupations within this group require at least a bachelor’s degree, and several of the occupations within this group may also require on-the-job training.

Life, physical, and social science occupational group

Overall employment in life, physical, and social science occupations is projected to grow 6.9 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 98,700 new jobs over the decade.²³ Increasing demand for expertise in the sciences, particularly in occupations involved in biomedical research, psychology, and environmental protection, is projected to result in employment growth in this group. One of the detailed occupations within the life, physical, and social science occupational group, epidemiologists, is among the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031. (See appendix A-1.)

Employment of epidemiologists is projected to grow 25.8 percent from 2021 to 2031 because of the increased need to identify and mitigate the impact of diseases. However, because the occupation is small, the fast growth of epidemiologists will result in only about 2,200 new jobs over the projections decade. An increase in the number of people in older age groups will drive the demand to develop new medicines and treatments to prevent, cure, or manage disease. The increased demand, in turn, is expected to contribute to the much-faster-than-average projected employment growth of medical scientists and biochemists and biophysicists.

Animal scientists are expected to be needed to research more sustainable farming methods, especially in livestock production. However, because the occupation is small, the fast growth of animal scientists will result in only about 400 new jobs over the projections decade.

As scientific and technological advances are expected to increase the availability, reliability, and usefulness of objective forensic information used as evidence in trials, more forensic science technicians will be needed. Because this is a small occupation, its fast growth is expected to result in only about 2,000 new jobs over the projections decade.

The median annual wage for life, physical, and social science occupations was $72,740 in May 2021, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760. Some form of postsecondary education is needed for entry-level positions in nearly all occupations in this group. Some occupations within this group require on-the-job training, internship, or residency experience.

Entertainment and sports occupational group

Overall employment in entertainment and sports occupations is projected to grow 12.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 95,500 new jobs over the decade.²⁴ Strong demand from the public for entertainment options, including movies and television shows, and the continued popularity of sports will contribute to job growth for the entertainment and sports occupations. However, some of the projected employment growth in these occupations is due to recovery from the COVID-19 recession of 2020; this growth is likely to occur early in the projections decade as participation and attendance in recreational activities, including organized sports and performances, resume. Four of the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the entertainment and sports occupational group: athletes and sports competitors; umpires, referees, and other sports officials; dancers; and choreographers. (See appendix A-1.)

In addition to the recovery from the COVID-19 recession of 2020, an increased public interest in professional sports will support demand for athletes and sports competitors; umpires, referees, and other sports officials; and coaches and scouts.

Dancers and choreographers also were affected by the COVID-19 recession and are projected to experience strong growth as they recover early in the decade. However, because these are small occupations, their fast growth is expected to result in only about 1,500 new jobs for dancers and 1,900 new jobs for choreographers.

The median annual wage for entertainment and sports occupations was $49,470 in May 2021, slightly higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. While typical entry-level education requirements vary within this occupational group, most occupations in the entertainment and sports occupations group require on-the-job training.

Architecture and engineering occupational group

Overall employment in architecture and engineering occupations is projected to grow 3.6 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 91,300 new jobs over the decade.²⁵ None of the detailed occupations within this occupational group are among the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031. Most of the projected job growth in this group is for engineers; their services will be in demand in areas such as manufacturing, construction, and renewable energy.

The employment of chemical engineers is projected to grow much faster than average, at 13.9 percent from 2021 to 2031, as chemical engineering services are needed across various manufacturing industries. However, because the occupation of chemical engineers is small, its fast growth will result in only about 3,700 new jobs over the projections decade.

Increased adoption of industrial robotics and integration of automation will continue to create demand for industrial engineers to design efficient manufacturing processes, resulting in projected employment growth of 10.2 percent over the projections decade. Employment of bioengineers and biomedical engineers is projected to grow 9.8 percent from 2021 to 2031 as demand for biomedical devices and procedures, such as hip and knee replacements, continues to increase.

The median annual wage for architecture and engineering occupations was $79,840 in May 2021, which was higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Some form of postsecondary education is needed for entry-level positions in nearly all occupations in this group. A few occupations within this group require on-the-job training, internship, or residency experience.

Math occupational group

Overall employment in math occupations is projected to grow 28.7 percent from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 82,000 new jobs over the decade.²⁶ Expected robust growth in data and the associated demand for data to be collected and analyzed are major factors behind the strong projected employment growth for math occupations. Growth is anticipated as larger amounts of digital and electronic data are collected with the expanding digital economy. Workers in math occupations will be needed to collect, organize, and analyze data to help optimize and improve business processes. Three of the top 30 occupations projected to grow the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the math occupational group: data scientists, statisticians, and operations research analysts. (See appendix A-1.)

Because organizations rely on data scientists and statisticians to mine and analyze the large amounts of information and data collected, employment in these occupations is projected to growth by 35.8 percent and 32.7 percent, respectively, over the projections decade. Data scientists and statisticians are among the top 10 fastest growing occupations overall. (See appendix A-1.) As technology advances and companies and government agencies seek efficiency and cost savings, demand for operations research analysts should continue to grow.

Actuaries also are expected to experience much-faster-than-average employment growth as their services will be needed to develop, price, and evaluate a variety of insurance products and calculate the costs of new risks. Employment of actuaries is projected to grow 20.8 percent from 2021 to 2031.

The median annual wage for math occupations was $98,680 in May 2021, higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Postsecondary education is needed for entry-level positions in math occupations. All occupations within this group do not require on-the-job training except for actuaries; they typically require long-term, usually more than a year, on-the-job training.

Protective service occupational group

Overall employment in protective service occupations is projected to grow 2.1 percent from 2021 to 2031, slower than the average for all occupations; the increase is expected to result in about 72,600 new jobs over the decade.²⁷ Demand for various types of protective services is expected to persist over the projections decade and support employment growth for many occupations in this group. These services include protection from fires, crimes, and injuries in sporting and recreational activities.

Forest fire inspectors and prevention specialists will continue to be needed to help control fires and investigate the cause of fires. These inspectors’ and specialists’ services will continue to be in demand as they will be needed to enforce outdoor fire regulations and other means of forest fire prevention. The severity of wildfires in several states has increased in recent years, resulting in a greater need for these workers.²⁸

Crossing guards and flaggers and school bus monitors will be needed to protect school children crossing the street, getting on and off the bus, and traveling by bus.

The median annual wage for protective service occupations was $46,590 in May 2021, slightly higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Typical entry-level education for most protective service occupations is a high school diploma or equivalent, and candidates typically receive on-the-job training.

Media and communication occupational group

Overall employment in media and communication occupations is projected to grow 6.2 percent from 2021 to 2031, about as fast as the average for all occupations; this increase is expected to result in about 68,600 new jobs over the decade.²⁹ Demand for media and communication occupations is expected because of the continued need to create, edit, translate, and disseminate information through a variety of different platforms.

Employment of interpreters and translators is projected to grow 20.2 percent from 2021 to 2031 as demand for translation services continues to grow with increasing globalization and a more diverse U.S. population.

Media and communication equipment workers will be in demand to support the increased need for audio and visual support, including audio and video technicians, lighting technicians, film and video editors, and photographers. This is in addition to an increase in demand for new content produced for streaming services.

The median annual wage for media and communication workers, including media and communication equipment workers, was $61,140 in May 2021, which was higher than the median annual wage for all occupations of $45,760. Most occupations within this group require some form of postsecondary education and on-the-job training.

Arts and design occupational group

Overall employment in arts and design occupations is projected to grow 2.2 percent from 2021 to 2031, slower than the average for all occupations; the increase is expected to result in about 20,500 new jobs over the decade.³⁰ Some of the projected employment growth in arts and design occupations is due to recovery from the COVID-19 recession of 2020 and is likely to occur early in the projections decade as recreational activities resume.

Employment of fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators is projected to grow 6.4 percent from 2021 to 2031, and employment of craft artists is projected to grow 5.1 percent over the projections decade as recreational activities resume.

Special effects artists and animators will be needed to meet the demand for animation and visual effects in video games, movies, television, and smartphone applications, seeing a projected employment growth of 5.4 percent from 2021 to 2031. The employment of set and exhibit designers and merchandise displayers and window trimmers is projected to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations (5.2 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively) from 2021 to 2031.

The median annual wage for arts and design occupations was $48,220 in May 2021, slightly higher than the median for all occupations in the economy. Most occupations within this group typically require a bachelor’s degree for entry, and some of these occupations require on-the-job training.

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupational group

Overall employment in farming, fishing, and forestry occupations is projected to show little or no change from 2021 to 2031; this limited growth is expected to result in about 8,400 new jobs over the decade.³¹ The need for domestic agricultural products should support demand for these workers to produce and supply food. Continued mechanization of farming and forestry may limit employment in some occupations and benefit employment of other occupations in this group.

An expected increase in the use of agricultural equipment will require more agricultural equipment operators relative to farmworkers and laborers. Small farms that sell their products directly to consumers through venues such as farmers’ markets might create opportunities for some agricultural workers, including animal breeders and other agricultural workers.

The median annual wage for farming, fishing, and forestry occupations was $29,860 in May 2021, lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. Most of these occupations do not require any formal education, but a high school diploma and on-the-job training are usually necessary in more specialized jobs in this occupational group.

Production occupational group

Overall employment in production occupations is projected to decline 1.9 percent from 2021 to 2031, a decrease of about 163,600 jobs over the decade.³² The increasing automation of production processes is expected to continue to require fewer manufacturing jobs, which account for a large share of production occupations. Thirteen of the top 30 occupations projected to decline the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the production occupational group, including the 5 occupations shown in table 23. (See appendix A-2.)

Improved precision technologies enable machines to cut various materials, resulting in reduced demand for cutters and trimmers. Increased use of robotics will enable assemblers and fabricators to work alongside robots (a development also known as collaborative robotics). These robots can perform more complex tasks such as drilling holes, cutting materials, or painting equipment, which reduces demand for some assemblers and fabricators.

Employment declines in some production occupations also will result from shifts in product preferences. As nuclear energy power production faces steep competition from renewable energy sources, decommissioning plans for several reactors are reducing demand for nuclear power reactor operators. Similarly, increased customer demand for digital products compared with printed materials will reduce the demand for the services provided by print binding and finishing workers and prepress technicians.

The median annual wage for production occupations was $37,710 in May 2021, lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. Education requirements range from no formal education to a postsecondary nondegree award, but a high school diploma and some on-the-job training are typically needed.

Sales occupational group

Overall employment in sales occupations is projected to show little or no change from 2021 to 2031, seeing a decrease of about 164,500 jobs over the decade.³³ The increasing use of digital marketing and advertising is contributing to the projected decline in employment of many sales occupations. Alternative methods of direct marketing (including web advertisements, emails, and text messages) have emerged as substitutes for telemarketing and door-to-door sales marketing. Telemarketers are the only detailed occupation from the sales occupational group among the top 30 occupations projected to decline the fastest from 2021 to 2031. (See appendix A-2.)

Telemarketers; door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers; and advertising sales agents are all projected to experience a decline in employment from 2021 to 2031. The growth of digital advertising also will reduce demand for paper advertisements and increase demand for virtual promotional products.

Cashiers are projected to have the largest decline of any occupation over the projections period. Employment of cashiers is expected to decline because of advances in technology, such as the increased use of online sales, digital payment, and self-checkout systems.

The median annual wage for sales occupations was $30,600 in May 2021, lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. Most occupations in this group typically require no education credentials, but some of the occupations may require a high school diploma. Also, some form of on-the-job training may be needed.

Office and administrative support occupational group

Overall employment in office and administrative support occupations is projected to decline 4.5 percent from 2021 to 2031, a decrease of about 880,800 jobs over the decade.³⁴ Office and administrative support occupations constitute the largest of all groups, composing about 12.4 percent of all jobs in 2021; however, this group is also expected to lose the most jobs of any occupational group by 2031. Technological changes are expected to continue to negatively affect the future employment of office and administrative support occupations. Computer and application software tools, digital data collection, and automated scheduling systems continue to be improved and used in many office and administrative support tasks. Seven of the top 30 occupations projected to decline the fastest from 2021 to 2031 are detailed occupations within the office and administrative support occupational group, including the 5 occupations in table 25, legal secretaries and administrative assistants, and order clerks. (See appendix A-2.)

Many office tasks (for example, data entry, telephone, and answering services) continue to be automated. As a result, employment in office and administrative support occupations is projected to decline. For example, technological improvements will require fewer secretaries and administrative assistants as many secretarial tasks can now be completed by other workers. Word processors and typists is the occupation with the fastest projected employment decline of all occupations as computer use continues to enable many occupations to acquire typing skills. Employment in this occupation is projected to decline by 38.2 percent from 2021 to 2031.

Despite projected employment declines, openings in office and administrative support occupations are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to other occupations or exit the labor force, such as retirees.

The median annual wage for office and administrative support occupations was $38,050 in May 2021, lower than the median for all occupations in the economy. A high school diploma or equivalent is the most common entry-level education requirement for occupations in this group, and some form of on-the-job training may be needed.

Discussion and analysis

While specific factors drive employment change for each detailed occupation, there are broader macroeconomic factors that can affect occupations within an occupational group or even across occupational groups. About 8.3 million new jobs are projected to be added over the 2021–31 projections decade. Nearly one in four new jobs will be in the healthcare occupational group. Computer and information technology occupations and math occupations are projected to experience much-faster-than-average employment growth because of the strong demand for informational technology (IT) services and an expected robust growth in data analysis. The food preparation and serving occupations and personal care and service occupations are projected to experience fast growth over the projections period. However, a part of this projected growth represents recovery from a low employment level in 2021. Production occupations, sales occupations, and office and administrative occupations are the occupational groups projected to decline over the projections decade because of changes in technology, business practices, and outsourcing activities.