Figure 2. Performance of CES seasonal-factor estimates and original CES estimates
| Variance of idiosyncratic CES error |
MSE of original CES estimate |
MSE of estimated CES seasonal factors |
|
0.00001
|
0.000010 |
0.000002 |
|
0.00002
|
0.000019 |
0.000004 |
|
0.00003
|
0.000029 |
0.000006 |
|
0.00004
|
0.000039 |
0.000008 |
|
0.00005
|
0.000049 |
0.000010 |
|
0.00006
|
0.000058 |
0.000012 |
|
0.00007
|
0.000068 |
0.000014 |
|
0.00008
|
0.000078 |
0.000016 |
|
0.00009
|
0.000087 |
0.000018 |
|
0.00010
|
0.000097 |
0.000020 |
|
0.00025
|
0.000243 |
0.000050 |
|
0.00050
|
0.000486 |
0.000099 |
|
0.00075
|
0.000729 |
0.000149 |
|
0.00100
|
0.000971 |
0.000198 |
|
0.00125
|
0.001214 |
0.000248 |
|
0.00150
|
0.001457 |
0.000298 |
|
0.00175
|
0.001700 |
0.000347 |
|
0.00200
|
0.001943 |
0.000396 |
|
0.00225
|
0.002186 |
0.000446 |
|
0.00250
|
0.002428 |
0.000495 |
|
0.00275
|
0.002671 |
0.000545 |
|
0.00300
|
0.002914 |
0.000594 |
|
0.00325
|
0.003157 |
0.000643 |
|
0.00350
|
0.003400 |
0.000693 |
|
0.00375
|
0.003643 |
0.000742 |
|
0.00400
|
0.003885 |
0.000792 |