Table 2. BLS projected growth rate compared with naïve and actual growth rates and BLS absolute error compared with naïve and mean absolute errors, by category of labor force, macroeconomy, and industry employment, 1996–2006, 1998–2008, and 2000–10
Category BLS projected growth rate Naïve growth rate Actual growth rate BLS absolute error Naïve absolute error Mean absolute error
1996–2006 1998–2008 2000–10 1986–1996 1988–1998 1990–2000 1996–2006 1998–2008 2000–10 1996–2006 1998–2008 2000–10 1996–2006 1998–2008 2000–10 BLS rate Naïve rate

Labor force

                                 

Totals

                                 

Civilian noninstitutional population

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2

Labor force

1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.2

Participation rate

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 –0.1 –0.2 –0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4

Cohort

                                 

Male

0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2

Female

1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5

Age, years

                                 

16 to 24

1.4 1.4 1.5 –1.0 –0.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 –0.7 0.9 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.9

25 to 54

0.5 0.5 0.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.1 1.2

55 and older

3.7 4.0 3.6 0.7 1.2 2.2 4.8 5.0 4.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 4.1 3.8 2.7 1.1 3.5

Race

                                 

White

0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2

Black

1.3 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8

Asian

3.5 3.4 2.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 6.1 5.7 3.7 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.8

Hispanic

3.1 3.2 2.3 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.4 3.1 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.7

Non-Hispanic

0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3

Macroeconomy

                                 

Unemployment rate

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Household employment

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.5

Nonfarm wage and salary employment

1.4 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.9 –0.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.7 1.2

Nonfarm labor productivity (index 1992 = 100)

1.2 1.4 2.8 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.3 2.3 1.5 0.5 1.1 1.4

Oil prices (nominal dollars)

2.8 8.1 –0.4 3.6 –1.8 2.2 11.4 22.7 10.7 8.6 14.7 11.1 7.8 24.5 8.5 11.5 13.6

GDP rebased real 2005 dollars

2.5 1.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.0 0.9

Personal consumption expenditures

2.9 2.2 3.5 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.9

Gross private domestic investment

3.3 NA 5.1 3.2 NA 7.1 5.0 1.4 –1.7 1.8 NA 6.8 1.9 NA 8.7 4.3 5.3

Net exports

0.3 NA 4.9 –4.5 NA 20.6 20.7 7.0 –0.7 20.4 NA 5.7 25.2 NA 21.3 13.0 23.3

Exports

7.3 NA 6.2 8.9 NA 7.1 4.5 4.6 3.4 2.7 NA 2.8 4.4 NA 3.6 2.8 4

Imports

6.7 NA 5.9 6.1 NA 9.3 7.7 5.1 2.4 1.0 NA 3.4 1.6 NA 6.8 2.2 4.2

Government

0.3 NA 0.8 1.2 NA 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 NA 1.4 1.1 NA 0.9 1.8 1

Federal defense

–1.8 NA 0.6 –2.0 NA –2.4 2.4 3.9 4.7 4.3 NA 4.1 4.5 NA 7.1 4.2 5.8

Federal nondefense

–0.7 NA 1.5 2.3 NA 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.5 NA 2.5 0.5 NA 2.1 3.0 1.3

State and local

1.1 NA 0.7 2.6 NA 2.8 2.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 NA 0.3 0.4 NA 1.9 0.7 1.1

Industry employment

                                 

Total wage and salary workers

1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.8 –0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.2 0.6 2.0 0.9 0.9

Goods

0.3 0.4 0.8 –0.4 –0.1 0.9 –0.4 –1.3 –3.2 0.7 1.7 4.0 0.0 1.2 4.1 2.1 1.8

Mining

–2.3 –1.7 –0.7 –3.9 –3.1 –3.0 1.2 2.3 2.3 3.4 4.1 3.0 5.0 5.4 5.3 3.5 5.3

Construction

0.9 0.9 1.3 –0.3 0.7 2.4 3.4 1.5 –2.0 2.4 0.6 3.4 3.7 0.9 4.5 2.1 3

Manufacturing

0.2 0.3 0.6 –0.3 –0.2 0.4 –1.9 –2.6 –3.9 2.1 2.9 4.5 1.6 2.4 4.3 3.2 2.8

Durable

0.1 0.4 0.8 –1.0 –0.4 0.8 –1.5 –2.4 –4.1 1.6 2.8 4.9 0.5 2.0 4.9 3.1 2.5

Nondurable

0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 –0.2 –2.4 –2.8 –3.6 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.1

Services

1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.7

Transportation, communications and utilities

1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 –1.4 0.9 1.5 3.1 0.9 1.4 3.1 1.8 1.8

Transportation

1.8 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.0 0.5 –0.7 0.8 1.1 2.8 0.9 1.4 3.0 1.5 1.8

Communications

–0.1 1.5 0.8 –0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 –1.0 –3.6 0.3 2.6 4.4 0.3 1.3 4.2 2.4 2

Utilities

2.8 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.8 –0.2 –1.0 –0.7 –0.8 3.8 1.8 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.6 2.8 1.6

Trade

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.6 0.7

Wholesale

1.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 –0.8 0.5 0.6 2.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.0 0.9

Retail

1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.5 0.6

Finance, insurance and real estate

1.0 1.3 0.8 3.1 2.8 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.3 0.6 2.1

Other services

3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.3 0.9

Government

0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4

Federal

–0.7 –0.8 –0.9 –0.2 –1.8 –3.1 –0.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.3 1.8 3.5 0.8 1.8

State and local

1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.2

Note: GDP = gross domestic product, NA = not applicable, and dashes indicate no data reported.

Sources: Historical data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.