Category | BLS projected growth rate | Naïve growth rate | Actual growth rate | BLS absolute error | Naïve absolute error | Mean absolute error | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1996–2006 | 1998–2008 | 2000–10 | 1986–1996 | 1988–1998 | 1990–2000 | 1996–2006 | 1998–2008 | 2000–10 | 1996–2006 | 1998–2008 | 2000–10 | 1996–2006 | 1998–2008 | 2000–10 | BLS rate | Naïve rate | |
Labor force |
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Totals |
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Civilian noninstitutional population |
1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Labor force |
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Participation rate |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | –0.1 | –0.2 | –0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
Cohort |
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Male |
0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Female |
1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Age, years |
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16 to 24 |
1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | –1.0 | –0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | –0.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
25 to 54 |
0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
55 and older |
3.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 3.5 |
Race |
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White |
0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Black |
1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Asian |
3.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
Hispanic |
3.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Non-Hispanic |
0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Macroeconomy |
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Unemployment rate |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Household employment |
1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Nonfarm wage and salary employment |
1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | –0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Nonfarm labor productivity (index 1992 = 100) |
1.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Oil prices (nominal dollars) |
2.8 | 8.1 | –0.4 | 3.6 | –1.8 | 2.2 | 11.4 | 22.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 13.6 |
GDP rebased real 2005 dollars |
2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Personal consumption expenditures |
2.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Gross private domestic investment |
3.3 | NA | 5.1 | 3.2 | NA | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | –1.7 | 1.8 | NA | 6.8 | 1.9 | NA | 8.7 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
Net exports |
0.3 | NA | 4.9 | –4.5 | NA | 20.6 | 20.7 | 7.0 | –0.7 | 20.4 | NA | 5.7 | 25.2 | NA | 21.3 | 13.0 | 23.3 |
Exports |
7.3 | NA | 6.2 | 8.9 | NA | 7.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | NA | 2.8 | 4.4 | NA | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4 |
Imports |
6.7 | NA | 5.9 | 6.1 | NA | 9.3 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | NA | 3.4 | 1.6 | NA | 6.8 | 2.2 | 4.2 |
Government |
0.3 | NA | 0.8 | 1.2 | NA | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | NA | 1.4 | 1.1 | NA | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1 |
Federal defense |
–1.8 | NA | 0.6 | –2.0 | NA | –2.4 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | NA | 4.1 | 4.5 | NA | 7.1 | 4.2 | 5.8 |
Federal nondefense |
–0.7 | NA | 1.5 | 2.3 | NA | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | NA | 2.5 | 0.5 | NA | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
State and local |
1.1 | NA | 0.7 | 2.6 | NA | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | NA | 0.3 | 0.4 | NA | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
Industry employment |
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Total wage and salary workers |
1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | –0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Goods |
0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | –0.4 | –0.1 | 0.9 | –0.4 | –1.3 | –3.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Mining |
–2.3 | –1.7 | –0.7 | –3.9 | –3.1 | –3.0 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 5.3 |
Construction |
0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | –0.3 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | –2.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 3 |
Manufacturing |
0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | –0.3 | –0.2 | 0.4 | –1.9 | –2.6 | –3.9 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
Durable |
0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | –1.0 | –0.4 | 0.8 | –1.5 | –2.4 | –4.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
Nondurable |
0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | –0.2 | –2.4 | –2.8 | –3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
Services |
1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Transportation, communications and utilities |
1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | –1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Transportation |
1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | –0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Communications |
–0.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | –0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | –1.0 | –3.6 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 2 |
Utilities |
2.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | –0.2 | –1.0 | –0.7 | –0.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
Trade |
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Wholesale |
1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | –0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Retail |
1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Finance, insurance and real estate |
1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
Other services |
3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Government |
0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
Federal |
–0.7 | –0.8 | –0.9 | –0.2 | –1.8 | –3.1 | –0.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
State and local |
1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Note: GDP = gross domestic product, NA = not applicable, and dashes indicate no data reported. Sources: Historical data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. |