Figure 1. Comparison of BLS projection errors of nonfarm payroll employment, manufacturing employment, labor force, GDP, and unemployment rate with those of other government agencies: mean absolute error of 2006, 2008, and 2010 projections
Variable Projection source Mean absolute value
 

Employment, nonfarm payroll (annual growth rate)

 BLS 0.7

 

 EIA 0.4

 

 Actual —

Employment, manufacturing

 BLS 3.2

 

 EIA 2.2

 

 Actual —

Labor force annual growth rate

 BLS 0.1

 

 CBO 0.2

 

 EIA 0.1

 

 Actual —

GDP real (annual growth rate)

 BLS(1) 1

 

 CBO 1

 

 OMB 1

 

 EIA 0.8

 

 Actual —

Unemployment rate

 BLS 2.5

 

 CBO 2

 

 OMB 2.1

 

 EIA 2.2

 

 Actual —
Notes:

(1) BLS data are not rebased for this table.They were published in 1992 & 1996 making them comparable to other comparisons.

Notes: Annual growth rates are given unless noted. GDP = gross domestic product.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and author’s calculations.