Figure 7. Absolute error of naïve and BLS projections for industry employment, 2006, 2008, and 2010
Industry (all wage and salary workers) BLS absolute error Naïve absolute error Mean absolute error
2006 2008 2010 2006 2008 2010 BLS Naïve

Goods

 0.69 1.71 4.01 0.00 1.24 4.15 2.14 1.80

Mining

 3.45 4.09 2.99 5.05 5.45 5.28 3.51 5.26

Construction

 2.42 0.65 3.36 3.66 0.90 4.48 2.14 3.01

Manufacturing

 2.06 2.88 4.55 1.57 2.36 4.33 3.16 2.75

Durable

 1.57 2.79 4.94 0.55 2.01 4.91 3.10 2.49

Nondurable

 2.80 3.01 3.93 2.98 2.88 3.42 3.25 3.09

Service

 0.19 0.55 1.39 0.20 0.49 1.54 0.71 0.75

Transportation, communications, and utilities

 0.89 1.47 3.13 0.86 1.39 3.05 1.83 1.77

Transportation

 0.75 1.05 2.76 0.86 1.41 3.03 1.52 1.76

Communications

 0.33 2.56 4.41 0.30 1.32 4.24 2.43 1.95

Utilities

 3.77 1.84 2.82 2.93 1.42 0.59 2.81 1.64

Trade

 0.11 0.32 1.29 0.07 0.33 1.66 0.57 0.69

Wholesale

 0.48 0.58 2.04 0.04 0.50 2.31 1.03 0.95

Retail

 0.28 0.24 1.07 0.08 0.28 1.48 0.53 0.61

Finance, insurance, and real estate

 0.77 0.30 0.67 1.25 1.82 3.30 0.58 2.12

Other Service

 0.73 1.07 2.00 0.26 0.74 1.81 1.27 0.94

Government

 0.32 0.38 0.02 0.13 0.57 0.39 0.24 0.36

Federal

 0.23 0.80 1.27 0.27 1.78 3.50 0.76 1.85

State

 0.34 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.41 0.02 0.27 0.21

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.