Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 01-443 Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 For release: 10A.M. EST Monday, December 3, 2001 Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp BLS RELEASES 2000-2010 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Projections for the American workforce covering 2000 to 2010 were issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and occupation and the likely composition of the work force pursuing those jobs. The 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor force, and economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends. These projections use the new Standard Occupational Classification SOC) system. The BLS projections were completed prior to the tragic events of September 11. While there have been numerous immediate economic impacts of this tragedy, the nature and severity of longer-term impacts remain unclear. At this time, it is impossible to know how individual industries or occupations may be affected over the next decade. BLS will continue to review its projections and, as the long-term consequences of September 11 become clearer, will incorporate these effects in subsequent analyses of industrial and occupational outlook. Employment Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 15 percent, slightly less than the 17 percent growth during the previous decade, 1990-2000. (The definition of employment used in these projections differs from those used in other BLS programs. (See Table 1) Industry Employment * The service-producing sector will continue to be the dominant employment generator in the economy, adding 20.5 million jobs by 2010. Within the goods-producing sector, construction and durable manufacturing will contribute relatively modest employment gains. * As employment in the service-producing sector increases by 19 percent, manufacturing employment is expected to increase by only 3 percent over the 2000-2010 period. Manufacturing will return to its 1990 employment level of 19.1 million, but its share of total jobs is expected to decline from 13 percent in 2000 to 11 percent in 2010. * Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added to the economy during the 2000-2010 period. These sectors account for a large share of the fastest-growing industries. (See Table 3a) Occupational employment * Professional and related occupations and service occupations are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs-7.0 million and 5.1 million, respectively. These two groups-on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum-are expected to provide more than half of total job growth over the 2000-2010 period. (See Table 2) * Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15 percent, about the same as the average for all occupations * Office and administrative support occupations are projected to grow more slowly than average, reflecting long-term trends in office automation. Production occupations should grow much more slowly than average because of advances in manufacturing technology. * Eight of the 10 fastest growing occupations are computer-related, commonly referred to as information technology occupations. (See Table 3b) * The 10 occupations adding the most jobs come from a wide range of occupational groups. (See Table 3c) Education and training categories * Employment in all seven education or training categories that generally require a college degree or other post secondary award is projected to grow faster than the average across all occupations. These categories accounted for 29 percent of all jobs in 2000 but will account for 42 percent of projected new job growth, 2000-2010. (See Table 4) * The four categories requiring work-related training are projected to grow more slowly than average, but would still add a substantial number of jobs. Labor force The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17 million over the 2000-2010 period, reaching 158 million in 2010. This 12.0-percent increase is only slightly greater than the 11.9-percent increase over the previous decade, 1990-2000, when the labor force grew by 15 million. (See Table 5) The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because of changes in both the demographic composition of the population and in the rates of workforce participation across demographic groups. * In 2010, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 46 to 64, and this age group will account for a substantial share of the labor force. The median age of the labor force will continue to rise, even though the youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force for the first time in 25 years. * The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase. The women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's, and the women's share of the labor force will increase sharply from 47 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010. * The labor force group, Asian and other, and the Hispanic labor force are projected to increase faster than other groups, 44 percent and 36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility. The black labor force is expected to grow by 21 percent, more than twice as fast as the 9 percent growth rate for the white labor force. * The share of the labor force will increase from 5 to 6 percent for the Asian and other group and from 11 to 13 percent for Hispanics. White non-Hispanics accounted for 73 percent of the labor force in 2000. Their share of the labor force in 2010 will decrease to 69 percent. Notes More detailed information on the 2000-2010 projections appears in four articles in the November 2001 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2001-02 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $43 a year; single copies are $13. The Quarterly costs $14 a year; single copies are $5.50. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 Industry Thousands of jobs Change Percent distribution Average annual rate of change 1990 2000 2010 1990-00 2000-10 1990 2000 2010 1990-00 2000-10 Total(1) 124,324 145,594 167,754 21,269 22,160 98.2 98.8 99.0 1.6 1.4 Nonfarm wage and salary 108,760 130,639 152,447 21,879 21,807 87.5 89.7 90.9 1.8 1.6 Goods producing 24,906 25,709 27,057 803 1,347 20.0 17.7 16.1 0.3 0.5 Mining 709 543 488 -167 -55 0.6 0.4 0.3 -2.6 -1.1 Construction 5,120 6,698 7,522 1,578 825 4.1 4.6 4.5 2.7 1.2 Manufacturing 19,077 18,469 19,047 -607 577 15.3 12.7 11.4 -0.3 0.3 Durable 11,109 11,138 11,780 29 642 8.9 7.7 7.0 0.0 0.6 Nondurable 7,968 7,331 7,267 -637 -64 6.4 5.0 4.3 -0.8 -0.1 Service producing 83,854 104,930 125,390 21,076 20,461 67.4 72.1 74.7 2.3 1.8 Transportaion, communications, utilities 5,776 7,019 8,274 1,243 1,255 4.6 4.8 4.9 2.0 1.7 Wholesale trade 6,173 7,024 7,800 851 776 5.0 4.8 4.6 1.3 1.1 Retail trade 19,601 23,307 26,400 3,706 3,093 15.8 16.0 15.7 1.7 1.3 Finance, insurance, and real estate 6,709 7,560 8,247 851 687 5.4 5.2 4.9 1.2 0.9 Services 27,291 39,340 52,233 12,049 12,893 22.0 27.0 31.1 3.7 2.9 Government 18,304 20,680 22,436 2,376 1,757 14.7 14.2 13.4 1.2 0.8 Federal Government 3,085 2,777 2,622 -308 -154 2.5 1.9 1.6 -1.0 -0.6 State and local government 15,219 17,903 19,814 2,684 1,911 12.2 12.3 11.8 1.6 1.0 Agriculture(2) 3,340 3,526 3,849 186 323 2.7 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.9 Private household wage and salary 1,014 890 664 -124 -226 0.8 0.6 0.4 -1.3 -2.9 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers(3) 8,921 8,731 9,062 -190 331 7.2 6.0 5.4 -0.2 0.4 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agricutlure (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, and trapping; and private households(4) 205 155 150 -50 -5 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.8 -0.3 Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker(5) 2084 1652 1582 -432 -70 1.7 1.1 0.9 -2.3 -0.4 (1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current populaiton Survey (household survey), which counts workers. (2) Excludes government wage and salary workers, and inlcudes private sector for SIC 08, 09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). (3) Exludes SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping). (4) Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households. (5) Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2000 and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Occupational group Number Percent distribution Number Percent 2000 2010 2000 2010 Total, all occupations 145,594 167,754 100.0 100.0 22,160 15.2 Management, business, and financial occupations 15,519 17,635 10.7 10.5 2,115 13.6 Professional and related occupations 26,758 33,709 18.4 20.1 6,952 26.0 Service occupations 26,075 31,163 17.9 18.6 5,088 19.5 Sales and related occupations 15,513 17,365 10.7 10.4 1,852 11.9 Office and administrative support occupations 23,882 26,053 16.4 15.5 2,171 9.1 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,429 1,480 1.0 .9 51 3.6 Construction and extraction occupations 7,451 8,439 5.1 5.0 989 13.3 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,820 6,482 4.0 3.9 662 11.4 Production occupations 13,060 13,811 9.0 8.2 750 5.7 Transportation and material moving occupations 10,088 11,618 6.9 6.9 1,530 15.2 NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. Table 3a. Industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2000-2010 Thousands Change Average annual of jobs rate of change Industry description 2000 2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 Computer and data processing services 2,095 3,900 1,805 6.4 Residential care 806 1,318 512 5.0 Health services, nec. 1,210 1,900 690 4.6 Cable and pay television services 216 325 109 4.2 Personnel supply services 3,887 5,800 1,913 4.1 Warehousing and storage 206 300 94 3.8 Water and sanitation 214 310 96 3.8 Miscellaneous business services 2,301 3,305 1,004 3.7 Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing 279 397 118 3.6 Management and public relations 1,090 1,550 460 3.6 NOTE: nec. = not elsewhere classified Table 3b. Fastest growing occupations, 2000-10 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Occupation 2000 2010 Number Percent Computer software engineers, applications 380 760 380 100 Computer support specialists 506 996 490 97 Computer software engineers, systems software 317 601 284 90 Network and computer systems administrators 229 416 187 82 Network systems and data communications analysts 119 211 92 77 Desktop publishers 38 63 25 67 Database administrators 106 176 70 66 Personal and home care aides 414 672 258 62 Computer systems analysts 431 689 258 60 Medical assistants 329 516 187 57 Table 3c. Occupations with the largest job growth, 2000-10 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Employment Change Occupation 2000 2010 Number Percent Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 2,206 2,879 673 30 Customer service representatives 1,946 2,577 631 32 Registered nurses 2,194 2,755 561 26 Retail salespersons 4,109 4,619 510 12 Computer support specialists 506 996 490 97 Cashiers, except gaming 3,325 3,799 474 14 Office clerks, general 2,705 3,135 430 16 Security guards 1,106 1,497 391 35 Computer software engineers, applications 380 760 380 100 Waiters and waitresses 1,983 2,347 364 18 Table 4. Employment and total job openings by education or training category, 2000-2010 [Numbers in thousands of jobs] Total job openings due to growth and net Employment Change, replacements, 2000-2010 2000-2010(1) Most significant source of Number Percent Number Percent Percent Number Percent education or training distribution distribution distribution 2000 2010 2000 2010 Total, all occupations 145,594 167,754 100.0 100.0 22,160 100.0 15.2 57,932 100.0 Bachelor's or higher degree 30,072 36,556 20.7 21.8 6,484 29.3 21.6 12,130 20.9 First professional degree 2,034 2,404 1.4 1.4 370 1.7 18.2 691 1.2 Doctoral degree 1,492 1,845 1.0 1.1 353 1.6 23.7 760 1.3 Master's degree 1,426 1,759 1.0 1.0 333 1.5 23.4 634 1.1 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience 7,319 8,741 5.0 5.2 1,422 6.4 19.4 2,741 4.7 Bachelor's degree 17,801 21,807 12.2 13.0 4,006 18.1 22.5 7,304 12.6 Associate degree or postsecondary vocational award 11,761 14,600 8.1 8.7 2,839 12.8 24.1 5,383 9.3 Associate degree 5,083 6,710 3.5 4.0 1,626 7.3 32.0 2,608 4.5 Postsecondary vocational award 6,678 7,891 4.6 4.7 1,213 5.5 18.2 2,775 4.8 Work-related training 103,760 116,597 71.3 69.5 12,837 57.9 12.4 40,419 69.8 Work experience in a related occupation 10,456 11,559 7.2 6.9 1,102 5.0 10.5 3,180 5.5 Long-term on-the-job training 12,435 13,373 8.5 8.0 938 4.2 7.5 3,737 6.5 Moderate-term on-the-job training 27,671 30,794 19.0 18.4 3,123 14.1 11.3 8,767 15.1 Short-term on-the-job training 53,198 60,871 36.5 36.3 7,673 34.6 14.4 24,735 42.7 (1) Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding. Table 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010 [Numbers in thousands] Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent) Group 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2000 2000-10 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-10 Total, 16 years and older 125,840 140,863 157,721 15,023 16,858 11.9 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.1 16 to 24 22,492 22,715 26,081 223 3,366 1.0 14.8 17.9 16.1 16.5 0.1 1.4 25 to 54 88,322 99,974 104,994 11,652 5,020 13.2 5.0 70.2 71.0 66.6 1.2 0.5 55 and older 15,026 18,175 26,646 3,149 8,471 21.0 46.6 11.9 12.9 16.9 1.9 3.9 Men, Total 69,011 75,247 82,221 6,236 6,974 9.0 9.3 54.8 53.4 52.1 0.9 0.9 Women, Total 56,829 65,616 75,500 8,787 9,884 15.5 15.1 45.2 46.6 47.9 1.4 1.4 White, Total 107,447 117,574 128,043 10,127 10,470 9.4 8.9 85.4 83.5 81.2 0.9 0.9 Black, Total 13,740 16,603 20,041 2,863 3,439 20.8 20.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 1.9 1.9 Asian and other, Total(1) 4,653 6,687 9,636 2,034 2,950 43.7 44.1 3.7 4.7 6.1 3.7 3.7 Hispanic origin, Total 10,720 15,368 20,947 4,648 5,579 43.4 36.3 8.5 10.9 13.3 3.7 3.1 Other than Hispanic origin, Total 115,120 125,495 136,774 10,375 11,279 9.0 9.0 91.5 89.1 86.7 0.9 0.9 White non- Hispanic 97,818 102,963 109,118 5,144 6,155 5.3 6.0 77.7 73.1 69.2 0.5 0.6 (1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" and "white" from the total; projections are made directly, not by subtraction.