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Employment Projections

Labor supply and factors affecting productivity

Other available formats: (XLSX)

Table 4.1 Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 2002, 2012, 2022, and projected 2032
(Numbers in millions, unless otherwise noted)

Category

2002

2012

2022

2032

Compound annual rate of change, 2002–12

Compound annual rate of change, 2012–22

Compound annual rate of change, 2022–32

Labor supply:

Total population

287.9

314.5

333.5

350.9

0.9

0.6

0.5

Civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older

217.6

243.3

264.0

282.6

1.1

0.8

0.7

Civilian labor force

144.9

155.0

164.3

170.7

0.7

0.6

0.4

Civilian labor force participation rate (percent)

66.6

63.7

62.2

60.4

-0.4

-0.2

-0.3

Civilian household employment

136.5

142.5

158.3

163.5

0.4

1.1

0.3

Nonagricultural payroll employment

130.6

134.2

152.6

157.2

0.3

1.3

0.3

 

Unemployment rate (percent)(1)

5.8

8.1

3.6

4.3

3.4

-7.6

1.6

 

Productivity:

Private nonfarm business output per hour, chained 2012 dollars

51.0

62.6

70.8

85.7

2.1

1.2

1.9

Footnotes:
  (1) Unemployment rates calculated and used within the projection model are made with less precise rounded values then those made by the Current Population Survey (CPS). Consequently, they may on occasion differ slightly from what is published by the CPS.
Source: Historical data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Projected data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Last Modified Date: September 6, 2023