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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Industry Projections Evaluation: 2004–2014

BLS estimated models for hundreds of detailed industries that were then summed to subsectors and sectors¹. Detailed industry projections were constrained to sum to the total nonfarm wage and salary employment provided by the macroeconomic model.

Changes to the industry classification system presented a challenge in evaluating these sets of projections. Therefore, BLS analyzed only the 16 aggregate industry major sectors rather than the detailed industries published within the projections publications. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for industries?

BLS correctly projected which major industry would grow and which would decline about 75 percent of the time.

The service-producing sector, representing over 80 percent of U.S. employment, was correctly projected to experience continued growth over the 2004–14 decade. The only incorrect projections of directional change within the service sectors were in financial activities and professional and business services. Both sectors were expected to increase, but instead had slight declines. BLS correctly expected that the goods–producing sector would decline, however, BLS expected mining to decline and construction to grow, which both did the opposite.

What did BLS project as the compound annual rate of growth from 2004 to 2014?

The projected compound annual growth rate from 2004 to 2014 was 1.3 percent.

What was the actual compound annual rate of growth from 2004 to 2014?

The actual compound annual growth rate from 2004 to 2014 was 0.6 percent.

What contributed to the difference?

Since the macroeconomic model overprojected U.S. employment, industry sectors also tended to be projected higher than what was realized.

For each of the following measures the BLS projection was compared against this naïve model.

Table 1. All industry absolute percent error, 2004—14
Sector	Actual 2014 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute Percent Error		Best Performer
Sector	Actual 2014 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best Performer
Nonfarm W&S	139,727	150,877	152,816	8%	9%	BLS

Table 2. Absolute percent error by major sector, 2004—14
Sector	Actual 2014 employment	Employment Projections		Absolute Percent Error		Best Performer
Sector	Actual 2014 employment	BLS	Naïve	BLS	Naïve	Best Performer
Mining	838	477	438	43%	48%	BLS
Construction	6,151	7,757	9,139	26%	49%	BLS
Manufacturing	12,185	13,553	12,068	11%	1%	Naïve
Utilities	552	563	462	2%	16%	BLS
Wholesale trade	5,814	6,131	6,127	5%	5%	Naïve
Retail trade	15,357	16,683	16,929	9%	10%	BLS
Transportation and warehousing	4,661	4,756	4,937	2%	6%	BLS
Information	2,726	3,502	4,054	28%	49%	BLS
Financial activities	7,977	8,901	9,480	12%	19%	BLS
Professional and business services	19,062	20,980	21,464	10%	13%	BLS
Educational services	3,417	3,665	3,654	7%	7%	Naïve
Health care and social assistance	18,023	18,482	17,391	3%	4%	BLS
Leisure and hospitality	14,696	14,694	14,820	0%	1%	BLS
Other services	6,388	6,943	7,326	9%	15%	BLS
Federal government	2,733	2,771	2,480	1%	9%	BLS
State and local government	19,148	21,019	22,047	10%	15%	BLS

The BLS model outperformed the naïve model in almost all major sectors in the absolute percent error measurement. The major sectors where the BLS model did not outperform the naïve model are wholesale trade, educational services, and leisure and hospitality.

Share analysis

Since aggregate employment was overprojected, detailed industries also tended to be overprojected. The projections, however, do not need to be close to the actual outcomes to be helpful to our data users in advising their career decisions. Comparing the projected share of the labor market with the actual share helps to address whether BLS correctly advised career–seeking customers which industry to pursue.

An example is in the manufacturing sector. Employment in the manufacturing sector was projected to decline 0.6 percent annually during the 2004–14 decade, making up only 9.0 percent of the total employment share by 2012. The actual employment dropped faster than expected, falling 1.6 percent annually over the projections decade. Despite the rapid decline, the sector only dropped to 8.7 percent of the total employment share in 2012, only 0.3 percent lower than projected.

View Chart Data

Note

¹ Subsectors and sectors are aggregations of NAICS industries.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018