Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on Job Openings and Labor Turnover data for June 2020

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) national estimates of job openings, hires, and separations have been affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This page provides further information on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for the June 2020 JOLTS news release.

Although the impact cannot be precisely quantified for the month of June, it is clear that increasing job openings and quits, as well as decreasing levels of hires, reflect a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it. More information on the JOLTS methodology can be found in the JOLTS Handbook of Methods chapter.

Collection mode

Data collection for the JOLTS survey was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, JOLTS collected 42 percent of data by phone at the JOLTS data collection center on average. Most phone respondents were asked to report electronically. However, data collection was adversely impacted by the inability to reach some respondents that normally respond by phone.

Table 1. Percent of establishments responding by collection mode for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Collection mode	12-month average through February 2020	March 2020	April 2020	May 2020	June 2020
Phone	42%	19%	27%	28%	32%
Web	52%	75%	68%	67%	62%
Other	6%	6%	5%	5%	6%

Response rates

The preliminary JOLTS response rate for June 2020 was 47 percent. In May, the final response rate was 51 percent. In the year prior to the pandemic, the preliminary response rate averaged 54 percent and the final response rate averaged 58 percent.

In June, JOLTS response rates declined in all industries and size classes. The industries most impacted were state and local government education and accommodation and food services. The industry least affected was mining and logging.

Table 2. Response rates for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
Time period	Preliminary rate	Final rate
12-month average through February 2020	54%	58%
March 2020	46%	51%
April 2020	44%	49%
May 2020	45%	51%
June 2020	47%	Not available

Imputation

JOLTS imputation for June resulted in very few cells with more imputation relative to the previous year. The industries which generally experienced more imputation were mining and logging, retail trade, and transportation, warehousing, and utilities.

Cell, series, index, or observation suppression

JOLTS did not suppress publication cells for June 2020.

Measures of error

Since the JOLTS program uses the median standard error over 5 years, the observed effect of June 2020 on the 5-year median is not likely to be large. JOLTS will not have error measures that include data from the current year until annual processing in March 2021.

Changes to methods

In anticipation of issues due to the pandemic, the JOLTS program reviewed all estimation and methodological procedures. An adjustment has been made to the JOLTS estimation methodology in order to more accurately reflect the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjustments were also made to the seasonal adjustment process.

Estimation

BLS modified the JOLTS estimates starting in March and continuing through June to better reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimation process usually includes an alignment of monthly hires minus separations to the over-the-month change in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment estimates. BLS suspended the alignment process because the differing reference periods for the CES employment estimates (pay period including the 12th of the month) and the JOLTS hires and separations estimates (the entire reference month) led to substantially different measurement outcomes. For example, hires and separations during the latter half of June were not included in the CES employment change for June, but were included in the JOLTS data for the month.

The alignment portion of the JOLTS estimation process was designed to correct a long-term divergence between the JOLTS implied employment change and the CES employment change. JOLTS hires minus separations and CES employment change generally approximate one another. Alignment was developed to correct small monthly discrepancies between the two series that build up over time; it was not designed to address a substantial short-term divergence between the two series. The alignment process was suppressed in order to produce the highest quality JOLTS estimates possible in this unique situation.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment factors can be either multiplicative or additive. A multiplicative seasonal effect is assumed to be proportional to the level of the series. A sudden large increase in the level of the series will be accompanied by a proportionally large seasonal effect. In contrast, an additive seasonal effect is assumed to be unaffected by the level of the series. In times of relative economic stability, the multiplicative option is generally preferred over the additive option. However, in the presence of a large level shift in a time series, multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors can result in systematic over- or under-adjustment of the series; in such cases, additive seasonal adjustment factors are preferred since they tend to more accurately track seasonal fluctuations in the series and have smaller revisions.
In June, the majority of the JOLTS series will retain the additive designation. In accordance with the survey’s usual practice, the seasonal adjustment models and factors will be reviewed at the end of the calendar year, when 5 years of seasonally adjusted estimates will be subject to revision.

Questions and answers specific to June

How are people who were laid off counted by JOLTS? The reference periods of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are the pay period that includes the 12th of the month for employment, the last business day of the month for job openings, and the entire calendar month for hires and separations. The JOLTS program does not estimate employment, but does collect employment during the collection process to validate reported job openings, hires, and separations. Employees who are laid off from their job at any time during the month are reported in the layoff and discharges measure, and in total separations. See the JOLTS frequently asked questions for detailed information on the data definitions.
How did the June estimates compare with the monthly estimates for past JOLTS data? Please see the following tables for a comparison of June 2020 estimates to historical levels.

Table 3a. Job openings by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region	June 2020 Level	Monthly change	Monthly percent change	Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time level was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest
Total nonfarm	5,889	518	9.6	May 2020	5,371	Mar 2020	6,011	May 2020	375	Jul 2015	880	May 2020	7.5	Jul 2015	16.7
Total private	5,246	510	10.8	May 2020	4,736	Mar 2020	5,284	May 2020	404	Jul 2015	819	May 2020	9.3	Jul 2015	17.1
Government	643	8	1.3	May 2020	635	Apr 2020	664	May 2020	-29	Jan 2020	66	May 2020	-4.4	Jan 2020	9.2
Region
Northeast	1,088	140	14.8	May 2020	948	Mar 2020	1,102	May 2020	-24	Jul 2015	161	May 2020	-2.5	Jul 2015	18.7
South	2,184	135	6.6	May 2020	2,049	Mar 2020	2,251	Apr 2020	-395	May 2020	193	Apr 2020	-17.5	May 2020	10.4
Midwest	1,296	173	15.4	May 2020	1,123	Feb 2020	1,556	May 2020	56	Jun 2017	208	May 2020	5.2	Jun 2017	16.4
West	1,320	69	5.5	May 2020	1,251	Mar 2020	1,373	Apr 2020	-272	May 2020	150	Apr 2020	-19.8	May 2020	13.6

Table 3b. Hires by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region	June 2020 Level	Monthly change	Monthly percent change	Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time level was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest
Total nonfarm	6,696	-503	-7.0	Apr 2020	4,047	May 2020	7,199	Apr 2020	-1064	May 2020	3152	Apr 2020	-20.8	May 2020	77.9
Total private	6,438	-514	-7.4	Apr 2020	3,812	May 2020	6,952	Apr 2020	-932	May 2020	3140	Apr 2020	-19.6	May 2020	82.4
Government	258	11	4.5	May 2020	247	Mar 2020	367	Apr 2020	-132	May 2020	12	Apr 2020	-36.0	May 2020	5.1
Region
Northeast	1,116	13	1.2	May 2020	1,103	May 2020	1,103	Apr 2020	-335	May 2020	569	Apr 2020	-38.6	May 2020	106.6
South	2,344	-65	-2.7	Apr 2020	1,584	May 2020	2,409	Apr 2020	-414	May 2020	825	Apr 2020	-20.7	May 2020	52.1
Midwest	1,584	-44	-2.7	Apr 2020	914	May 2020	1,628	Apr 2020	-183	May 2020	714	Apr 2020	-16.7	May 2020	78.1
West	1,652	-407	-19.8	Apr 2020	1,015	May 2020	2,059	Mar 2020	-205	May 2020	1044	Mar 2020	-15.2	May 2020	102.9

Table 3c. Total separations by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region	June 2020 Level	Monthly change	Monthly percent change	Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time level was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest
Total nonfarm	4,758	522	12.3	May 2020	4,236	Apr 2020	9,975	May 2020	-5739	Mar 2020	9048	May 2020	-57.5	Mar 2020	161.7
Total private	4,523	588	14.9	May 2020	3,935	Apr 2020	9,536	May 2020	-5601	Mar 2020	8999	May 2020	-58.7	Mar 2020	171.6
Government	235	-67	-22.2	Oct 2011	260	May 2020	302	May 2020	-137	Apr 2020	39	May 2020	-31.2	Apr 2020	9.8
Region
Northeast	836	109	15.0	May 2020	727	Apr 2020	1,851	May 2020	-1124	Mar 2020	1919	May 2020	-60.7	Mar 2020	216.1
South	1,827	152	9.1	May 2020	1,675	Apr 2020	3,429	May 2020	-1754	Mar 2020	2881	May 2020	-51.2	Mar 2020	137.4
Midwest	999	99	11.0	May 2020	900	Apr 2020	2,170	May 2020	-1270	Mar 2020	2342	May 2020	-58.5	Mar 2020	181.1
West	1,096	163	17.5	May 2020	933	Apr 2020	2,525	May 2020	-1592	Mar 2020	1905	May 2020	-63.0	Mar 2020	144.6

Table 3d. Layoffs and discharges by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region	June 2020 Level	Monthly change	Monthly percent change	Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time level was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest
Total nonfarm	1,885	-18	-0.9	Feb 2020	1,846	May 2020	1,903	May 2020	-5805	Mar 2020	9643	May 2020	-75.3	Mar 2020	522.4
Total private	1,804	24	1.3	May 2020	1,780	Apr 2020	7,481	May 2020	-5701	Mar 2020	9564	May 2020	-76.2	Mar 2020	545.9
Government	81	-42	-34.1	Dec 2019	78	May 2020	123	May 2020	-104	Apr 2020	54	May 2020	-45.8	Apr 2020	31.2
Region
Northeast	395	-7	-1.7	Feb 2020	348	May 2020	402	May 2020	-1107	Mar 2020	2000	May 2020	-73.4	Mar 2020	574.7
South	659	-5	-0.8	Feb 2020	624	May 2020	664	May 2020	-1846	Mar 2020	3123	May 2020	-73.5	Mar 2020	500.5
Midwest	343	-65	-15.9	Oct 2019	340	May 2020	408	May 2020	-1242	Mar 2020	2458	May 2020	-75.3	Mar 2020	558.6
West	487	58	13.5	May 2020	429	Apr 2020	2,039	May 2020	-1610	Mar 2020	2061	May 2020	-79.0	Mar 2020	473.8

Table 3e. Quits by sector and region (numbers in thousands)
Sector and region	June 2020 Level	Monthly change	Monthly percent change	Last time level was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time level was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly change was larger or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was smaller or equal or next closest		Last time monthly percent change was larger or equal or next closest
Total nonfarm	2,598	531	25.7	May 2020	2,067	Mar 2020	2,789	May 2020	190	Jan 2001	393	May 2020	10.1	Jan 2001	13.7
Total private	2,493	548	28.2	May 2020	1,945	Mar 2020	2,619	May 2020	214	Jan 2001	376	May 2020	12.4	Jan 2001	13.8
Government	106	-16	-13.1	Jun 2011	101	May 2020	122	May 2020	-24	Feb 2020	15	May 2020	-16.4	Mar 2020	-11.0
Region
Northeast	399	127	46.7	May 2020	272	Mar 2020	404	May 2020	-3	Apr 2008	94	May 2020	-1.1	Sep 2009	30.3
South	1,076	157	17.1	May 2020	919	Mar 2020	1,098	May 2020	128	Jan 2001	213	May 2020	16.2	Jan 2001	21.6
Midwest	592	149	33.6	May 2020	443	Mar 2020	654	May 2020	25	Jan 2015	142	May 2020	6.0	Jan 2015	29.6
West	531	98	22.6	May 2020	433	Mar 2020	633	May 2020	39	Jan 2017	102	May 2020	9.9	Jul 2014	28.3

Last Modified Date: August 10, 2020