Abstract
Jeffrey A. Groen (2011)
"Seasonal Differences in Employment between Survey and Administrative Data"
This paper examines seasonal differences in monthly employment figures gathered from
two Bureau of Labor Statistics programs. One is the Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages (QCEW), which is based on mandatory quarterly Unemployment Insurance reports; the
other is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Despite using similar definitions of
employment, QCEW and CES estimates are often different at micro and aggregate levels, both at
a point in time and in seasonal patterns. At the aggregate level, the largest differences in growth
rates between QCEW and CES employment occur from November and January. Three-fourths
of the differences in monthly employment growth between QCEW and CES is due to reporting
differences. Analysis of two matched samples of QCEW-CES micro data reveals that seasonal
differences are related to imputation in the QCEW, the number and frequency of payrolls, and
differences in the procedures used by establishments to compile QCEW and CES data.
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