BLS total employment projections usually close
June 14, 1999
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected trends in total employment fairly accurately since the 1960s, but the accuracy has not increased over time.
For three of the five periods shown in the chart, the projections of total employment growth were very accurate. Projected and actual employment growth were equal for 1960-70, at 20 percent. The 1980-90 employment projection (19 percent) was nearly identical to actual growth (20 percent). Additionally, projected and actual employment growth were very close for the 1960-75 period.
Projected and actual employment growth rates diverged the most over the latest period. Employment was projected to increase by a relatively modest 15 percent from 1984-95; it actually rose by 22 percent. There was also a sizable difference between projected and actual growth for the 1968-80 period.
Data on projections are produced by the BLS Employment Projections program. Find more information on the accuracy of employment projections in "The quality of BLS projections: a historical account," Monthly Labor Review, May 1999.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, BLS total employment projections usually close on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/1999/jun/wk3/art01.htm (visited July 25, 2016).
Recent editions of Spotlight on Statistics
A look at healthcare spending, employment, pay, benefits, and prices
As one of the largest U.S. industries, healthcare is steadily growing to meet the needs of an increasing population with an increasing life expectancy. This Spotlight looks at how much people spend on healthcare, current and projected employment in the industry, employer-provided healthcare benefits, healthcare prices, and pay for workers in healthcare occupations.
Employment and Wages in Healthcare Occupations
Healthcare occupations are a significant percentage of U.S. employment. Some of the largest and highest paying occupations are in healthcare. This Spotlight examines employment and wages for healthcare occupations.
Fifty years of looking at changes in peoples lives
Longitudinal surveys help us understand long-term changes, such as how events that happened when a person was in high school affect labor market success as an adult.