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September, 1987, Vol. 110, No. 9
to the year 2000
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared projections of the U.S. economy to the year 2000, our first look at the remainder of this century. The new projections, with 1986 as the base historical year, update and extend the previously published projections.1 As with earlier projections, three alternatives—termed moderate growth, low growth, and high growth—were estimated. The alternatives are designed to provide a range of estimates with variations in those assumptions to which the aggregate model is the most sensitive.
The moderate-growth alternative is characterized by a gross national product (GNP) influenced by greater productivity increase and slowing labor force growth, a moderately tapering unemployment rate, and a slowly improving foreign trade situation. In comparison, the high-growth model has stronger overall demand, higher inflation, and lower unemployment, but less favorable foreign trade balances; while the low-growth version has deeper recessions, slower productivity growth, declining government spending, and a higher unemployment rate. Projected real GNP growth for the 1986-2000 period ranges between 1.6 percent for the low-growth alternative and 3.0 percent for the high-growth scenario, providing a spread of $1 trillion in the real GNP estimates for 2000.
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1 For previous projection articles, see the November 1985 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.
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