Employment Projections: 2006-16 Summary

Technical information: (202) 691-5700     USDL 07-1847
              http://www.bls.gov/emp/     For release:  10:00 A.M. EST
Media contact:               691-5902     Tuesday, December 4, 2007


                     EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS:  2006-16

   Projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and
economic growth covering the 2006-16 decade were released today by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor.  The 10-year
projections are widely used in career guidance, in education and training
program planning, and in studying long-range employment trends.  The pro-
jections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a 60-year tradition
of providing information to individuals who are making education and
training choices, entering the job market, or changing careers.

   Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by
15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs,
or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade.  The labor force filling these
jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to
grow more slowly than in the past.  This slowdown in the growth of the 
labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby
boomers.  As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the
labor force for other reasons--called replacement needs--is projected to
create a significant number of additional job openings.

Industry Employment

   --Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the
     service-providing sector of the economy.  Service-providing indus-
     tries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 
     2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016.
     Professional and business services and health care and social assist-
     ance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will
     add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in 
     total employment.  (See table 1.)

   --Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector
     projected to grow.  Employment in manufacturing will decline by
     1.5 million jobs.  This decline is  half of the 3 million manufac-
     turing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006).  Employment in
     goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to
     13.1 percent of total employment.  (See table 1.)

   --The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary
     employment growth--led by management, scientific, and technical con-
     sulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical
     hospitals--all are in the service-providing sector.  (See table 2.)

   --Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and
     salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including
     printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts
     manufacturing.  (See table 3.)

                                   - 2 - 

Occupational Employment

   --Professional and related occupations and service occupations--2 major
     occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings
     ranges--are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs, 
     accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16
     decade.  (See table 4.)

   --A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated
     in a small number of detailed occupations.  The 30 occupations with the
     largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new
     jobs.  (See table 5.)  The 30 occupations with the largest numeric
     declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from
     declining occupations.  (See table 8.)

   --Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in
     professional and related occupations and service occupations.  
     (See table 5.)

   --Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional
     and related occupations and service occupations.  (See table 6.)

   --Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations.  Of the
     30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to 
     growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million
     jobs in 2016.  (See table 7.)
                                 
   --Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
     are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over
     the decade.  (See table 4.)

Education and Training Categories

   --For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or
     moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of
     postsecondary education or training.  (See table 5.)

   --For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor’s or higher
     degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or
     training.  (See table 6.)

   --On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant
     source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occu-
     pations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth
     and net replacements.  (See table 7.)

   --For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment
     declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most signi-
     ficant sources of postsecondary education or training.  (See table 8.)

   --The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college
     degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016.  (See table 9.)

                                   - 3 - 

Labor Force

   --The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over
     the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016.  This 8.5 percent
     increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous
     decade--1996 to 2006--when the labor force grew by  17.5 million.
     (See table 10.)

   --The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by
     46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the
     labor force overall.  (See table 10.)

   --Youths--those between the ages of 16 and 24--will decline in numbers and
     will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent.
     The number of prime-age workers--those between the ages of 25 and 54--
     will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will
     decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent.  (See table 10.)

   --The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching
     26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected
     to grow by only 5.1 percent.  (See table 10.)

   --Increases in the labor force will vary by race.  Whites will remain 
     the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent,
     composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016.  The number of blacks
     will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor
     force.  Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group,
     increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor
     force by 2016.  (See table 10.)

A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections

   Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the
projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in
employment implies a labor shortage or surplus.  The measures upon which
the employment and labor force projections are based are different.  Employ-
ment is a count of jobs; labor force is a count of individuals.  In
addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that
is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of
frictional unemployment.  For a discussion of the basic projection
methodology, see "An overview of BLS projections to 2016," James Franklin,
November 2007 Monthly Labor Review.  For a discussion of labor shortages in
the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to
2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly
Labor Review.

Notes

   More detailed information on the 2006 to 2016 projections appears in
five articles in the November 2007 issue of the Monthly Labor Review,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
The Monthly Labor Review is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/
mlr/welcome.htm.

   The forthcoming 2008-09 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook
and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2006-16 projections
in assessing job prospects, work activities, earnings, educational require-
ments, and more for numerous occupations and industries.  The Handbook and
Career Guide both will be available online December 18, 2007, at http://www.
bls.gov/oco and http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg, respectively.  A graphic pre-
sentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Fall 2007
Occupational Outlook Quarterly.  The Quarterly is available online at
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq.

                                   - 4 - 

   Detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections
will be published in the 2008-09 edition of the Occupational Projections
and Training Data (OPTD).  The OPTD will be available online May 2008 at
http://www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm.

   The Occupational Outlook Handbook, Career Guide to Industries, Occupa-
tional Outlook Quarterly, Occupational Projections and Training Data, and
the Monthly Labor Review are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.  To order, visit:  http://www.bls.gov/emp/
emppub01.htm.  To order Monthly Labor Review, visit:  http://www.bls.gov/
opub/mlr/subscrib.htm.

   Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request.  Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; TDD message
referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.